The probability of winning on a slot machine is 5%. If a person plays the machine 500 times, find the probability of winning 30 times. A slot machine with a progressive jackpot has a top prize that’s constantly growing. In the largest examples, like Mega Bucks, where the prize starts at $10 million and grows from there, your probability of winning is similar to your probability of winning the lottery.
Some people might want to know how to find the payout percentage on a slot machine. Sadly, it’s not something that’s printed on most games — at least not here in the United States.
This post is for them.
Understanding this topic involves some rudimentary understanding of probability as it relates to casino gambling. You’ll need to understand three separate concepts thoroughly:
- Payback percentage
- House edge
- Return to player
This post explains each of those in enough detail that even a beginner should understand what they mean.
Some Basic Facts Related to Probability, the House Edge, Payback Percentage, and Return to Player
Probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with how likely an event is to happen. If you want to measure how likely you are to win a jackpot on a slot machine, probability is the way to figure that out.
But the word also refers directly to that likelihood.
In other words, if I say the probability of getting heads when I flip a coin is 50%, I’m not talking about that branch of mathematics. I’m talking about the actual statistical likelihood of that event.
You should understand a few things about probability in general.
Probability is always a number between 0 and 1. An event with a probability of 0 will never happen, and an event with a probability of 1 will always happen. The closer to 1 the probability is, the more likely the event is to happen.
Probability can be expressed multiple ways. It can be expressed as a fraction, a decimal, a percentage, or as odds. The probability of getting heads on a coin flip can be expressed as 1/2, 0.5, 50%, or 1 to 1.
An event’s probability is the number of ways it can happen divided by the total number of possible outcomes. When you’re discussing a coin toss, you have two possible outcomes. Only one of those is heads. That makes the probability 1/2.
The probability that an event will occur added to the probability that an event won’t occur always equals 1. Therefore, if you know the probability that something will happen, you also automatically know the probability that it won’t happen, and vice versa. Free poker games online no download.
The house edge is a statistical measure of how much the house expects to win (on average, over the long run) from every bet you make on a game. The house edge is a theoretical number that accounts for the probability of winning versus the probability of losing AND the payout if you win.
All casino games carry a house edge. In the short run, it doesn’t matter much, but in the long run, it’s the most important thing.
If I say a game has a house edge of 4%, this means that over time, you should average a loss of $4 for every $100 you bet on the game. This is a long run statistical average, though. In the short run, you’re unlikely to see results that mirror the house edge.
The return to player and the payback percentage are the same thing. Some writers use one to refer to the statistical expectation and the other to refer to the actual results, but most writers use these terms interchangeably.
The payback percentage added to the house edge always equals 100%. The payback percentage is the amount of each bet that you get back, and the house edge is the amount of each bet that the casino wins. Again, these numbers are on average over the long run.
A game with a 4% house edge has a 96% payback percentage.
![Slot Slot](https://myroomismyoffice.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/odds-of-winning.jpg)
In the United States, slot machine payback percentages are impossible to calculate and not posted on gambling machines. To calculate the house edge or the payback percentage for a casino game, you need two pieces of data:
- The probability of winning
- The amount of money you’ll win (the payoff)
Slot machines include their payouts on their pay tables, but they don’t include the probability of achieving any of the winning outcomes.
In some countries, the payback percentage is posted on the machines, but not in the United States.
To make things even worse for a slot machine player, the random number generator program can be set differently even if the slot machine is identical to the one next to it. You could be playing The Big Lebowski slots at Choctaw Casino in Durant, Oklahoma, and your buddy could be playing the identical machine right next to you.
The payback percentage on his machine might be 94%, and the payback percentage on your machine might only be 88%.
The difference comes from how the probabilities are weighted for each symbol. On one game, the bars might show up 1/4 of the time, but on the next, they might only come up 1/8 of the time.
This has an obvious effect on the payback percentage.
The payback percentage would be easy to calculate if you knew the probabilities. The payback percentage is just the total expected value of all the possible outcomes on the machine.
Let’s assume you have 1000 possible reel combinations. Let’s also assume that if you got each of those in order, from 1 to 1000, you’d win 900 coins.
The payback percentage for that game would be 90%.
You’d put 1000 coins in, and you’d have 900 coins left after a statistically perfect sampling of 1000 spins.
If you knew the payback percentage and house edge for a slot machine game, you could predict your theoretical cost of playing that game per hour in the long run. You’d only need to multiply the numbers of bets you made per hour by the size of those bets. Then you’d multiply that by the house edge to get your predicted loss.
The Probability Of Winning On A Slot Machine Is 5000
Most slots players make 600 spins per hour. Let’s assume you’re playing on a dollar machine and betting three coins on every spin, or $3 per spin. You’re putting $1,800 per hour into action.
If the slot machine had a 90% payback percentage, you’d lose $180 per hour on that machine. You’d have $1,800 at the start of the hour and $1,620 at the end of the hour — assuming you saw statistically predicted results.
In the real world, though, where you’d be seeing short-term results, you’d see some hours where you won and some hours where you lost. If you played long enough, the Law of Large Numbers would ensure that you’d eventually see the statistically predicted results.
This is how the casinos make their money. In the short run, you’ll win some of the time. That will keep you playing.
But in the long run, the math will ensure that the casino will win a net profit.
How You Could Calculate a Payback Percentage Based on Actual Results
Of course, you have some data that you can directly observe when you’re playing slot machines.
The Probability Of Winning On A Slot Machine Is 540
But tracking this data and calculating the payback percentage on a specific session can add to your enjoyment of any slot machine game. It can make you more mindful because you’ll be paying more attention to what’s happening.
Here’s how to do it.
Start by tracking how many spins you’re making per hour. This is easy to do, but it takes more effort than you might think. It might help to get one of those clicky things people use to count stuff with. You will probably also need a stopwatch of some kind. I just use the timer function on my phone.
Make a note (mental is fine) of how much you’re betting per spin. It helps to bet the same amount.
Also note how much money you started with so that you can calculate how much you’ve won or lost. The slot machine will convert your money into credits. The easiest thing to do is to keep up with how many credits you had at the beginning of the session and again at the end of the session.
Now, let’s do the math using a hypothetical 45-minute session.
I made 300 spins in 45 minutes. I was betting $3 per spin, and I started with $600.
After my playing session, I had $500 left. At times I was up, and at times I was down.
But my net loss was $100. (My starting bankroll was $600, and I finished with $500.)
Over 300 spins, that means I lost an average per spin of 33 cents. $100 in losses divided by 300 spins is 33.33 cents per spin.
How much was I betting per spin?
Since I was playing a $1 machine, and my max bet was three coins, I was risking $3 per spin.
33 cents is 11% of $3, which means my actual loss was 11%. The machine paid back 89% for the session.
Does this mean that the payback percentage for the machine is 89%?
Probably not.
In the scheme of things, 450 spins is a small sample size. To have any confidence in your statistics, you really need to have at least 5,000 spins under your belt.
Even then, depending on how volatile the game is, your actual results might be wildly different from the mathematically expected payback percentage.
Here’s another example that will prove that point.
My friend Leo went to the Winstar last weekend and played the $5 slots. He started with $3,000, and when he left, he had $4,800, which means he had an $1,800 profit for the day.
He played for seven hours.
![Machine Machine](https://bestnetentcasino.info/images/games/2020/santa-vs-rudolf.jpg)
I’ve watched Leo play. He’s slow, but not much slower than average. He makes about 500 spins per hour.
This means that he made about 3,500 spins.
$1,800 in winnings divided by 3,500 spins is an average win of 51 cents per spin.
Since he was betting $5 per spin, his return was 10.3%.
His actual return for the trip on that slot machine was 110.3%.
I have friends who design slot machines for a living — more than one, in fact. They’ll be happy to tell anyone who asks that the algorithm is never set up to have a payback percentage of more than 100%.
What About the Casinos That Advertise a Specific Payback Percentage?
Some casinos advertise a specific payback percentage. This is almost always stated as an “up to” number.
So you might see an ad for a casino that says, “Payback percentages up to 98%!”
They’re almost certainly telling the truth, too. They probably have one slot machine in their casino that has a payback percentage of 98%. Of course, it isn’t labeled, so you don’t know which one it is.
And in the short run, which is what you’re going to be playing in as an individual gambler, there’s not much difference between a 98% payback percentage and a 92% payback percentage. You could walk away a winner or a loser at either setting.
Also, keep in mind that the games aren’t designed to tighten up after a win and loosen up after a lot of losing spins. That’s not how it works at all.
The machines are designed to allow you to win a certain specific percentage of the time because of the probability. Then there’s an average amount that you’ll win based on the payout for the specific combination of symbols that you hit.
But every spin of the reels on a slot machine is an independent event. You can hit a jackpot on a spin, and your probability of hitting the jackpot on the next spin hasn’t changed at all.
What About the Denominations and Location Reports I See Advertised on the Internet?
You’ll find websites like Strictly Slots and American Casino Guide which post payback percentages for specific denominations and specific casinos. These are AVERAGES.
These averages have little bearing on the machine that you’re sitting in front of.
For example,
you might be looking at a casino that reports an average payback percentage of 94% on its dollar slot machines. That casino might have half their machines paying off at 90% and the other half paying off at 98%.
you might be looking at a casino that reports an average payback percentage of 94% on its dollar slot machines. That casino might have half their machines paying off at 90% and the other half paying off at 98%.
And you won’t be able to differentiate between the two because the hit ratio might be the same from one of those machines to another.
What Do Hit Ratio and Volatility Have to Do With It?
The hit ratio is the percentage of time that you can expect to hit a winning combination on a slot machine. Something like 30% isn’t unusual, but it can vary 10% or more in either direction. The casinos want you to a hit a winning combination often enough that you won’t lose interest in playing the game.
But hit ratio is only part of the equation. The average size of the prize amounts is also important. Volatility takes this into account. A game that hits less often but has higher average prize amounts might have the same payback percentage as a game that hits more often but with lower payouts.
Either way, in the short run, it will be all but impossible to discover this number, too.
If you wanted to, you could track how many spins resulted in wins for you and calculate the percentage, but you’re facing the same obstacle you are with the overall payback percentage of the machine.
You just don’t know what it’s programmed to accomplish in the long run.
Online Slot Machines
Some online casinos post the payback percentages for their slot machine games. I think this information is of limited use, but I also think it’s fairer to the gambler than not providing them with that information.
After all, table games are transparent. You can calculate the house edge for any casino table game there is because they all use random number generators with known quantities — cards, dice, and wheels.
There’s been a push to label food, both at the grocery store and at restaurants, with nutritional information that includes caloric amounts.
The Probability Of Winning On A Slot Machine Is 500
Requiring casinos to provide similar information about their gambling machines only makes sense.
We’ll see if it ever happens, though.
Conclusion
You can’t find the payout percentage on a slot machine — at least not in the United States.
I’ve heard that you can get this information on slot machines in Europe, but I’ve never seen an actual photograph of this kind of labeling.
You can, though, have some fun calculating actual payback percentages in the short run. This at least gives you something to keep track of while you’re playing slots, which is honestly one of the more mindless activities in the casino.
Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.0I’ve heard that you can get this information on slot machines in Europe, but I’ve never seen an actual photograph of this kind of labeling.
You can, though, have some fun calculating actual payback percentages in the short run. This at least gives you something to keep track of while you’re playing slots, which is honestly one of the more mindless activities in the casino.
If you’ve been to the Diamond Casino in GTA Online, you probably tried to play some of its games. It’s a stylish casino with lots of slots; blackjack, baccarat and poker games. Despite that, there’s a big issue in the establishment. The games, more so slots, seem rigged. Sure, slots aren’t the fairest of games. The house always wins. But there’s a difference between losing a few times and doing it continuously. Worse, the game’s Non-Player Characters (NPCs) win frequently. If you’ve been keen to observe the NPCs at the casino, they hit winning symbols suspiciously fast.
Aren’t they all the same?
I’ve played a lot of casino themed games over the years on a range of formats, right since the 1980s when I bought Vegas Jackpot from Mastertronic for the Vic 20. You know that the odds are always stacked against the player no matter what. That comes with the territory, but any title that claims to simulate casino games still have to offer some degree of realism. If I lost every game of slots I played on Vegas Jackpot, I wouldn’t have bothered with it for more than a few minutes but it did let players win.
It’s the same with all of the games I’ve played on the PSP. I’d been a fan of poker ever since I first watched a tournament on Channel 4, captivated by the likes of Dave Ulliolt and Phil Hellmuth. As such I was drawn to the console games, first on the PS3 then the PSP. While the stars of the World Poker Tour made the games appealing, it was the fact that these AI players could be beaten helped keep the games engaging. No, there wasn’t any money involved but what’s the point of playing any video game that you can’t win? And it felt the same widening the appeal further with games like Hard Rock Casino. You’re not going to make a virtual million on it, but if players and fans of the game like myself weren’t able to win a single hand of cards, earn any chips on a roulette wheel or come away with anything from the slots room then what’s the point of playing? None whatsoever.
So, why would GTA Online rig games that don’t help you win real money?
To Keep you Focused on real Crimes
Rockstar knows if the Diamond casino becomes profitable, players will spend more time gambling than doing heists, smuggling or racing. But if people keep losing; they will spend less time playing games and more time doing other activities.
Of course, the games allow you to win from time to time. A lucky Reddit user recently won $2.5 million. But if you read through the thread, a lot of players have been playing thousands of chips and winning very little.
To Regulate Gambling
The last thing Rockstar wants is an accusation of creating problematic gamblers. That’s why it has designed its games to remain unprofitable to players. Additionally, you can’t gamble more than 50,000 chips in 30 minutes. Considering the 500,000 chips cost around 30p, you can’t gamble excessively.
Another regulation is to limit players that come from countries where gambling is illegal. From Belgium to Poland, China to Egypt, people whose countries prohibit gambling are welcomed with this message. “Your account cannot complete this transaction.”
The Probability Of Winning On A Slot Machine Is 50
For Profits
Rockstar needs players’ cash, real money. And with its games tilted in its favour by a mile, players that fancy gambling at the Diamond Casino must keep purchasing new chips. Unsurprisingly, the developer allows you to buy chips using real money. However, you can’t withdraw gambling profits.
Are there Fair Games at Diamond Casino?
Although the odds of winning slots at the Diamond Casino are slim, there are several more games in the casino with better odds. Blackjack and poker, in particular, operate fairly. The casino also features roulette and baccarat tables. Blackjack and poker are the best games to play if you want to win regularly. With blackjack, you can use a range of strategies to beat the dealer. With proper skills, on the other hand, winning poker is relatively easy.
Of course, you can’t use your gambling profits to do meaningful things on GTA Online. But being a member of the casino grants you a penthouse you could embellish to look elegant. Playing the games is also fun, even unfair slot machines.
Where can you Play Fair Slot Machines?
If you love playing slots on GTA Online despite never winning anything substantial, there’s a better way to play the games. Fruityslots.com/slots/ features several detailed guides of how to play hundreds of slot machines for real money. The website also shows you where to play the games, including some casinos that welcome you with free betting money.
Real money casinos, obviously, allows you to cash out your profits. But how do you know their games are fair?
Regulated by Respected Authorities
Unlike slots at GTA Online, real money gambling sites are regulated by independent authorities. In the UK, gambling companies acquire licenses from the Gambling Commission. Gibraltar and Alderney also have regulatory authorities. But they provide licenses to enable casinos to operate outside of Britain.
True, Visible Odds
GTA Online claims its slots have a 98% payout rate. But if you’ve played the game, you’ll know the figure is wildly exaggerated. You could gamble hundreds of times and win nothing. But at the same time, the casino’s NPCs could win continuously.
Real money casinos have verifiable payout rates. In fact, some casinos allow independent game auditing companies to check their games for fairness. That way, a slot with a 98% payout rate will hit more frequently than a 95% machine.
You can win
The best way to know how fair a slot machine is to play it. Most real money slots regularly hit, even if it’s small amounts. Some games, however, hit moderately but produce decent wins. On the other extreme, you could play a game that rarely lets you win. But when it hits, you could win tens or hundreds of thousands of pounds.
Can you increase your odds of Winning Slots?
You can’t increase your odds of winning slots at the Diamond Casino. But if you play real money slots, there are ways to boost your chances of winning. Here are some of them:
- Choose High Paying Games – Theoretically, high paying games pay out more frequently than less paying slots. In reality, you can’t be sure which game pays you the most money. But you have better odds playing games designed to hit frequently. The average online casino pays out 96% of wagered cash, but you can also find games with a 99% return to player rate.
- Use Casino Bonuses – Some casinos give you bonuses to welcome you to their platforms. Use these rewards to help extend your game time. You could also win real money with the awards, and the cash could help cover your losses or maximize your profits.
- Play at the Best Casinos – Find casinos with great reputations. This ensures you get paid every time you win. The best-rated casinos also provide high paying games and bonuses, both of which can help increase the odds of winning.
To Conclude
After you buy a penthouse and gain entrance to the Diamond Casino, you’ll probably realize the slots are unfair. You can confirm that by comparing your win rate with the win percentage of NPCs. You could continue to play if you don’t mind losing. But if you want to cherish high-quality slot machines and win real money, consider joining real money online casinos. The reality is that the Diamond Casino is DLC via stealth means, just adding some gameplay into the mix where players don’t always get the in-game rewards they’re paying for.
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